The Crane Index: COVID-19 recession will likely put a damper on Toronto’s condo boom

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Ontario Construction News staff writer

The regular Crane Index for North America developed by Rider Levett Bucknall (RLB) shows results that will likely need to be adapted because of the COVID-19 crisis – but shows that Toronto has had the most robust construction market (measured by the number of cranes) of 14 key markets surveyed. And most of the Toronto crane activity is for condo and mixed-use residential/commercial projects.)

The report, compiled with information gathered from three sources—a one-day physical count of fixed-tower cranes on city skylines, a survey of RLB experts on the ground in each location, and interviews with local crane suppliers—provides a simplified measure of the construction industry in 14 key markets.

Read the complete Crane Index here.

“The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had a sudden and ongoing effect on the economy,” said Julian Anderson, president of RLB North America. “We expect, given the impact the virus is having on financial markets, that there is a good chance it will trigger a recession, which will eventually drive construction costs down as contractors, subcontractors, and suppliers compete to win the reduced number of projects in development.”

Toronto “continues to be the hole of the majority of total cranes counted (27%), followed by Los Angeles (10%),” RLB reported.

In other aspects:

  • For the third consecutive count, Seattle experienced a decrease in its crane total, down 20% from the previous Index
  • Cities seeing an increase in cranes include Calgary, Chicago, Denver, Honolulu, Phoenix, San Francisco, and Toronto
  • Cities with a decrease in cranes include Las Vegas and Seattle
  • Cities having steady crane counts include Boston, Los Angeles, New York City, Portland, and Washington D.C.

RLB says:

  • Residential and mixed-use projects combined account for 70% of all cranes counted
  • Cranes dedicated to healthcare projects drop 33% from previous counts
  • Hospitality projects experience a nationwide decrease in active cranes of 50%

“In Toronto, the city with the greatest number of cranes in North America, the count is holding steady,” RLB reports. “Most are servicing residential projects, followed by mixed-use towers that contain both residential and commercial space.

“Although residential pre-construction sales have been strong, COVID-induced economic uncertainty precludes a positive market forecast,” the report says.

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