Ontario Construction News staff writer
Oakville’s housing market is increasingly out of reach for many residents, with affordability issues affecting even middle- and higher-income households, according to a new report presented to town council this month. At the same time, demand for new housing is projected to climb steadily through 2051, creating both challenges and opportunities for the construction sector.
At its Sept. 8 planning and development meeting, town staff unveiled the Oakville Housing Needs Assessment, which found that most households earning less than $106,800 a year cannot afford average market rents in the community. Even those with higher incomes face challenges in buying a home. Households earning $54,000 can at most afford a bachelor unit, while those making less than $151,000 cannot afford ownership housing at current market prices.
“Most low-income, and many moderate-income households cannot afford rental or ownership housing,” said Alexa Volkov of SHS Consulting, which prepared the assessment. “Even some high-income households are estimated to not be able to afford current ownership prices without paying well beyond their means.”
Oakville is projected to add 92,000 residents and 35,760 new households by 2036, with another 68,110 households expected by 2051. If current construction trends continue, the town will see a major shift in its housing mix, with high- and medium-density units growing at a faster rate than low-density units.
The shift is expected to make more efficient use of land, promote public and active transportation, and accommodate a broader range of household types. Town officials have emphasized the need to ensure new apartment buildings include family-oriented housing for households who cannot afford large-lot, single-family homes.
The study projects 35,770 net new dwellings will be required by 2036, including 15,650 ownership units and 20,100 rental units. Of these, 10,600 ownership units and 12,880 rental units will need to meet provincial thresholds for affordable housing, representing 65 per cent of all new units. Most affordable units are expected to be high-density apartments, aligning with recent development trends, including rising condominium sales and increased apartment starts. Among rental households, there is a need for all unit sizes to meet varying household needs.
Also, there is a mismatch between housing supply and demographic needs. While 77 per cent of Oakville’s homes have three or more bedrooms, more than a third of households consist of just one or two people. Younger residents aged 20 to 34 and pre-retirees aged 55 to 64 are leaving the town, while young families are moving in.
Mayor Rob Burton said Oakville must act to avoid losing key age groups. “We need housing for the segments of these age groups that we are losing and not providing for so we can have a complete community and provide for all ages,” he said.
The assessment recommends setting a target of 35 per cent of new market housing as affordable and at least 40 per cent of new units as rental. It also calls for a diversified mix of one- and two-bedroom units for smaller households while ensuring apartments include family-sized units. The report encourages innovation, including mid-rise and multi-unit infill, laneway housing, triplexes and fourplexes, and the use of municipally owned land for affordable housing projects.
Coun. Ray Chisholm questioned how new affordable housing would be funded, noting that “growth is not paying for itself and major decisions will need to be made regarding how this is handled.” Community advocates such as Sara Cumming of Home Suite Hope called for enforceable timelines and stronger partnerships with non-profits, co-ops, and private developers to deliver long-term affordable housing.
The study projects that by 2036, 60 per cent of new units will be high-density apartments, 21 per cent medium-density stacked townhouses, and 18 per cent low-density detached or accessory units. At least 56 per cent of all new units will be rentals, 30 per cent will be affordable ownership, and 36 per cent will be affordable rentals.